Durham New Hampshire, USA – Good times will continue rolling over the next six months for Americans according to the earliest and final results from the largest in scope and participation consumer survey released today by Prosper Insights & Analytics (TM) and e-forecasting.com.
The popular consumer confidence measure, expressed in growth rates and indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, decreased 0.2 percent points in February to a reading of 111.2, after rising (+0.1 percent points) in January.
The underlying trend in consumer confidence, which smoothes out high frequency noise, rose 0.2 percent points to 111.5 in February. “The level of and change in the trend of economic confidence expected by consumers foreshadow that the United States’ growth business-cycle will be in its expansion phase six months from now.” said Maria Sogard, CEO at e-forecasting.com.
Using the trend-adjusted consumer confidence and sophisticated econometric techniques that measure recession risk, the predictive analytics model puts forward probabilities of an imminent recession with a 50% threshold between booms and busts. “The probability for an upcoming recession declined to 32.7% in February from 33.2% in January.” said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and editor for Predictive Analytics Databases at e-forecasting.com. “As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 67.3%.” Evangelos added.
Looking at consumers’ buying intentions (CBI) six months ahead, this month’s visualization highlights consumer plans to buy cars. “In February, the CBI predictive analytic for purchasing cars is 7% higher than in February of last year,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “The consumer survey also provides detailed predictive analytics for buying cars by price range and brands, indicating different levels of preferred intentions by segment-combinations,” Gary added.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 15-years experience forecasting markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e-forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
Grant Faustino, Director, Media Relations
About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns.
Phil Rist, EVP Strategic Insights