Durham New Hampshire, USA – Good times will continue rolling over the next six months for Americans according to the earliest and final results from the largest in scope and participation consumer survey released today by Prosper Insights & Analytics (TM) and e-forecasting.com.
The popular consumer confidence measure, expressed in growth rates and indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.5 percent points in January to a reading of 112, after rising (+0.6 percent points) in December. “The level of and change in economic confidence expected by consumers foreshadow that the United States’ growth business-cycle will be in its expansion phase six months from now.” said Maria Sogard, CEO at e-forecasting.com.
Adjusting the new confidence index to the economy’s long-term trend, its co-movement with monthly GDP results in predictive intelligence for classic business cycle analysis, which is used officially to define the booms (expansions) and busts (recessions) for the economy. The trend-adjusted consumer confidence index increased 8% in January to a reading of 117.6, following an increase of (+9.4%) in December.
Using the trend-adjusted consumer confidence and sophisticated econometric techniques that measure recession risk, the predictive analytics model puts forward probabilities of an imminent recession with a 50% threshold between booms and busts. “The probability for an upcoming recession declined to 31.1% in January from 32.1% in December.” said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and editor for Predictive Analytics Databases at e-forecasting.com. “As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 68.9%.” Evangelos added.
Looking at consumers’ buying intentions (CBI) six months ahead, this month’s visualization focuses on consumer plans to buy a house. “In January, the CBI predictive analytic for purchasing a house is 2% lower than in January of last year,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Consumer plans to spend on home improvements over the next six months, a closely watched and related to the housing market predictive analytic, is 9% higher this January from a year ago,” Gary added.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 15-years experience forecasting markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e-forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
Maria Sogard, CEO
About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns.
Stacie Nelson, Director, Customer Success