02-11-2017
04-10-2017
28-09-2017
Good times will continue rolling over the next six months for Americans according to the earliest and final results of the largest in scope and participation consumer survey released today by Prosper Insights & Analytics™ and e−forecasting.com.
The popular consumer confidence measure, expressed in growth rates and indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, remained unchanged in March at previous month reading of 111.5, after rising (+0.1 percent points) in February.
The underlying trend in consumer confidence, which smoothes out high frequency noise and thus minimizes the probability of false monthly signals, rose 0.2 percent points to 111.8 in March, a fifteen-year high. “The level of and change in the trend of economic confidence expected by consumers foreshadow that the United States’ growth business-cycle will be in its expansion phase six months from now.” said Maria Sogard, CEO at e-forecasting.com.
Adjusting the new confidence index to the economy’s long-term trend, its co-movement with monthly GDP results in predictive intelligence for classic business cycle analysis, which is used officially to define the booms (expansions) and busts (recessions) for the economy. The GDP trend-adjusted consumer confidence index increased 2.1% in March to a reading of 117.5, following an increase of (+2.7%) in February.
Using the trend-adjusted consumer confidence and sophisticated econometric techniques that measure recession risk, the predictive analytics model puts forward probabilities of an imminent recession with a 50% threshold between booms and busts. “The probability for an upcoming recession declined to 31% in March from 31.3% in February.” said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and editor for Predictive Analytics Databases at e-forecasting.com. “As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 69%.” Evangelos added.
Looking at consumers’ buying intentions (CBI) six months ahead, this month’s visualization of consumer analytics highlights consumer plans to buy cars and electronics. “In March, the CBI predictive analytic for purchasing cars is 1.8% higher than in March of last year,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “The trend in future purchases of electronics jumped in March by an annual rate of 15% from February, which was the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the last twelve months,” Gary added.
About e-forecasting.com
e−forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 15 years experience forecasting markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
About Prosper Insights & AnalyticsTM
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns. ProsperInsights.com
Contact:
e-forecasting.com
Grant Faustino, Director, Media Relations
gfaustino@e-forecasting.com
603-868-7436
Prosper Insights & AnalyticsTM
Phil Rist, EVP Strategic Insights
phil@goProsper.com
614-846-0146
The month of February started with disruption in the stock market, pushing Consumer Confidence down from January. This market force was offset by consumers’ positive of how they will be affected by the new Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). In our monthly survey of over 7,500 Americans, 54% state they were aware of the new tax reform legislation. Of those consumers, 11% are already planning to spend more on goods and services in 2018 as a result.
How will these factors impact consumer spending? Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director of Coresight Research, weighs in on consumer confidence, forecasted spending and the Consumer Mood Index.
Prosper Consumer Confidence: In February, 53.2% of consumers are confident or very confident in the economy compared to 59.5% in January and 50.1% in February of 2017. Small Business Owners continue to be more optimistic than the general population at 65% this month compared to 62.2% for the same period last year. “February’s drop in Prosper’s Consumer Confidence reading was likely driven by the stock market’s selloff the week Prosper fielded its monthly survey, with the S&P 500 off as much as 8.5 percent during the period. This drop along with the increased volatility of the various market indices in 2018 could dampen the wealth effect consumers enjoyed during 2017, when the S&P 500 rose 21.7 percent and the stock market turned in its least volatile performance in 30+ years. We have seen a return of volatility, or risk to the market in 2018, however, most of the macro-economic drivers remain positive as the year-over-year comparisons attest to. For consumers generally (18+ adults), confidence increased 6.3 percent in February 2018 versus a year ago driven by increased confidence among the more modest household income demographic (under $50K). Higher earners ($50K+ households) are more confident than lower income households, at 58% versus 47%, but it is among the higher income cohort that confidence dropped 11.4 percent month-over-month in February” Weinswig stated.
Prosper Consumer Spending Forecast: the February Consumer Spending Forecast of 85.22 is up from the January reading of 81.45 and up 3.1% from last year’s index of 82.64. “Consumer spending intent is promising for the next few months supported by improving incomes and reduced unemployment and the just implemented 2018 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that began to show up in consumers’ take home pay in February. According the Prosper’s survey, 11% of those aware of the 2018 tax law plan to spend the increase, benefitting home related categories (repair, furniture and home purchases) as well as computer and jewelry purchases. The majority of those surveyed and aware of the plan do not plan to increase spending. Vacation travel is a priority for both tax savers and tax spenders. With 46% of survey respondents unaware of the new tax code, Coresight Research anticipates another approximate 10% to increase spending, further boosting the outlook for these large purchase categories” Weinswig opined.
Prosper Impulsivity Score: The February reading of 2.89 the is up slightly from last month’s reading of 2.88 and last year’s reading of 2.88). Viewed over time, the score shows the consumer’s point of view of an improving economy.
Consumer Mood Index: At 106.2 overall Consumer Mood is up slightly from last month (106.1) and up from last year (106.1). The index diverges; however, when the Millennials are compared to the Boomers. Boomer Mood is trending up at 112.4 while Millennial Mood is trending down to 99.5. Weinswig elaborated, “An improving mood bodes well for consumer spending. Coresight Research expects Boomers to spend on experiential products and services such as beauty, exercise and spa treatments, entertainment, restaurants and travel. Purchases that enhance lifestyle such as smart connected homes and restorative beauty/wellness treatments are top of mind with affluent Boomers who continues to drive a significant portion of US discretionary spending. Retailers and brands should continue to market to this huge cohort who value service and quality over discounts and promotional pricing.”
Prosper Auto Outlook: The automotive outlook for the next 90 days is up versus last month and on up from February of last year. Actual Auto and Light Truck sales confirm our January Auto Outlook which predicted a down month for February.
To view these and additional insights, please visit: www.ForbesExecutiveInsightCenter.com (Registration is required for complimentary access.)
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Disclaimer: Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing PI&A statistics; or the PI&A data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
Durham New Hampshire, USA – Good times will continue rolling over the next six months for Americans according to the earliest and final results from the largest in scope and participation consumer survey released today by Prosper Insights & Analytics (TM) and e-forecasting.com.
The popular consumer confidence measure, expressed in growth rates and indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, decreased 0.2 percent points in February to a reading of 111.2, after rising (+0.1 percent points) in January.
The underlying trend in consumer confidence, which smoothes out high frequency noise, rose 0.2 percent points to 111.5 in February. “The level of and change in the trend of economic confidence expected by consumers foreshadow that the United States’ growth business-cycle will be in its expansion phase six months from now.” said Maria Sogard, CEO at e-forecasting.com.
Using the trend-adjusted consumer confidence and sophisticated econometric techniques that measure recession risk, the predictive analytics model puts forward probabilities of an imminent recession with a 50% threshold between booms and busts. “The probability for an upcoming recession declined to 32.7% in February from 33.2% in January.” said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and editor for Predictive Analytics Databases at e-forecasting.com. “As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 67.3%.” Evangelos added.
Looking at consumers’ buying intentions (CBI) six months ahead, this month’s visualization highlights consumer plans to buy cars. “In February, the CBI predictive analytic for purchasing cars is 7% higher than in February of last year,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “The consumer survey also provides detailed predictive analytics for buying cars by price range and brands, indicating different levels of preferred intentions by segment-combinations,” Gary added.
About e-forecasting.com
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 15-years experience forecasting markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e-forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
Contact:
e-forecasting.com
Grant Faustino, Director, Media Relations
gfaustino@e-forecasting.com
603-868-7436
About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns.
Contact:
Phil Rist, EVP Strategic Insights
stacie@goProsper.com
614-846-0146
January Consumer Confidence, continuing the positive momentum from last month, has hit a record high 59.5%, up 4 points from December and 7 points up from last January. How will this continued confidence impact consumer spend? Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director of Fung Global Retail & Technology (FGRT), weighs in on consumer confidence, the consumer spending forecast and Prosper’s Consumer Mood Index.
READ MORE
Durham New Hampshire, USA – Good times will continue rolling over the next six months for Americans according to the earliest and final results from the largest in scope and participation consumer survey released today by Prosper Insights & Analytics (TM) and e-forecasting.com.
The popular consumer confidence measure, expressed in growth rates and indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.5 percent points in January to a reading of 112, after rising (+0.6 percent points) in December. “The level of and change in economic confidence expected by consumers foreshadow that the United States’ growth business-cycle will be in its expansion phase six months from now.” said Maria Sogard, CEO at e-forecasting.com.
Adjusting the new confidence index to the economy’s long-term trend, its co-movement with monthly GDP results in predictive intelligence for classic business cycle analysis, which is used officially to define the booms (expansions) and busts (recessions) for the economy. The trend-adjusted consumer confidence index increased 8% in January to a reading of 117.6, following an increase of (+9.4%) in December.
Using the trend-adjusted consumer confidence and sophisticated econometric techniques that measure recession risk, the predictive analytics model puts forward probabilities of an imminent recession with a 50% threshold between booms and busts. “The probability for an upcoming recession declined to 31.1% in January from 32.1% in December.” said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and editor for Predictive Analytics Databases at e-forecasting.com. “As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 68.9%.” Evangelos added.
Looking at consumers’ buying intentions (CBI) six months ahead, this month’s visualization focuses on consumer plans to buy a house. “In January, the CBI predictive analytic for purchasing a house is 2% lower than in January of last year,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Consumer plans to spend on home improvements over the next six months, a closely watched and related to the housing market predictive analytic, is 9% higher this January from a year ago,” Gary added.
About e-forecasting.com
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 15-years experience forecasting markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e-forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
Contact:
e-forecasting.com
Maria Sogard, CEO
maria@e-forecasting.com
603-868-7436
About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns.
Contact:
Stacie Nelson, Director, Customer Success
stacie@goProsper.com
614-846-0146
In October, consumer confidence rebounds after three months of decline. How will it impact spending? Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director of Fung Global Retail & Technology (FGRT), weighs in on consumer confidence, the spending outlook, and impulsivity.
• Prosper Consumer Confidence: This month, 9% of consumers are confident or very confident in the economy, rising about two points from last month and increasing more than 25% year over year. The current reading is tracking just ahead of the 13 month average of 51.8%. At 63.7%, confidence among small business owners is flat from last month (63.6%). “Consumer confidence is tracking economic expansion. The U.S. economy has been growing at a 3% pace for six months now, and heading into the prime gift giving and getting season, consumers have the wind at their back. FGRT examined confidence by household income level, which revealed 61.9% of the wealthiest households (with annual income of $75,000+) are confident/most confident versus 55.3% consumers with household income in the $35,000 to $75,000 range, and 44.1% of consumers with household income less than $35,000. That confidence increased for all three income cohorts at a double-digit year-over-year pace; up 21.6%, 21.3% and 16.8% for consumers with household incomes of $75,000+, $35,000 to $75,000 and less than $35,000, respectively, bodes well for retailers generally, regardless of their target income demographic,” Weinswig commented.
Click here to read full analysis.
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New Predictive Analytic Indicates Consumer Optimism Over Next Six Months is Down
Durham, New Hampshire and Columbus, Ohio USA – October 19, 2017 –
Prosper Insights & and e-forecasting.com today launched a set of New Consumer Confidence (NCC) predictive analytics. NCC spawns from Prosper Insights & Analytics’ monthly consumer sentiment survey, which is the largest in scope and size in the US by calibrating information related to consumers’ confidence on the economy. e-forecasting.com’s unique economitric models use this data to accurately predict the performance of the US economy more than six months in advance.
Key features of the monthly NCC predictive analytics include:
- NCC is released at the start of the third week of each month, providing real-time data for that month, making it the earliest available indicator of consumer confidence.
- Improved insights of consumer behavior in relation to consumers’ expectations about the economic climate, with its consumer data derived from Prosper Insights & Analytics Monthly Consumer Survey, which includes over 7,000 US 18+ respondents, tracking how consumers feel about the economy, shopping behavior, future purchase intentions and more. Over 290 public companies are tracked by the survey. In addition, over 1,200 brands tracked (~700 public, 500 private).
- A significant advantage and track record of accurately predicting upcoming slowdowns and booms in the US economy with its analytic ability to predict recession probabilities.
- NCC is used to derive a Consumer Optimism forward-looking analytic, which computes the gap between current and expected growth in GDP.
- Segmentation provides four additional forward-looking predictive analytics tracking monthly consumers’ intentions to buy big ticket items – six months into the future. Four key groups of major purchases are reported monthly in the national set of NCC: furniture, appliances, electronics, and cars.
- In addition, the NCC national set offers two housing related forward-looking consumer predictive analytics. The first, consumers’ intentions to buy a house over the next six months, the most important asset purchase consumers make in their life time. The second covers a home improvement measure to determine if consumers intend to invest in their homes over the next six months.
“The various NCC indices can be of great value to every business sector. Retailers and Brands need an accurate, advanced notice on the economy for business planning,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Those in the manufacture or sale of durable goods can benefit from a greater understanding of consumer purchase intentions over the next six months for autos, appliances, electronics, and home buying.”
Financial service firms can embed the analytics in their models for an enhanced view of the economy and even detailed subsets, such as gender, age, or geographic regions, ” said Drenik.
Looking at consumers’ buying intentions over the next six months, an important highlight in October is a solid reading in the consumer predictive analytic which measures consumer plans to buy cars.
“In October, the consumer intentions index for purchasing cars is 14% higher than in October of last year,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, Professor at the University of New Hampshire and Predictive Analytics Database Editor for e-forecasting.com.” In the last seven months, the readings of the index ranged between 122 and 124, a robust performance compared to a reading of 106.9 in October of 2016,” Evangelos added.
View a complimentary October 2017 example of the NCC indices in an InsightCenter
Download the complimentary October 2017 PDF report
Going forward, the NCC will be available for purchase in an InsightCenter, as a PDF, or in Excel format. Additionally, the data can be fed for those using it to better inform models.
About e-forecasting.com
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 15 years experience forecasting markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e-forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
Contact:
e-forecasting.com
Maria Sogard, CEO
maria@e-forecasting.com
603-868-7436
About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns.
Contact:
Stacie Nelson, Director, Customer Success
stacie@goProsper.com
614-846-0146
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This month’s Consumer Snapshot video is a brief look at consumer confidence and practical purchase intentions. For October, we also review the Halloween spending trends we released with the National Retail Federation.
Highlights from the October 2017 Consumer Snapshot:
SENTIMENT
In October, economic sentiment rebounds after three months of decline. This month, 53.9% of consumers are confident or very confident in the economy, rising about 2 points from last month and increasing more than 25% year over year. The current reading is tracking just ahead of the 13 month average of 51.8%.
Note: Prosper fielded this month’s survey from October 3-10, 2017, completely after the Las Vegas shooting. While consumer confidence doesn’t seem to have been negatively affected by this terrible event, consumers’ concerns for their safety in public places rose more than 30% month over month.
SHOPPING STRATEGY
With the holiday shopping season on the horizon, consumers seem to be adjusting their spending sentiment accordingly. This month, 36.6% indicate that they’ve become more practical with their purchases, dropping about a point from September and more than two points from October 2016.
While consumers’ focus on just the necessities ticked slightly upward month over month, this indicator has declined nearly three points year over year. In October, two in five indicate that they are zeroing in on just the necessities when shopping, relatively in line with the 13 month average of 42%.
So, while consumers are sending some mixed signals versus September, consumers overall are feeling less pragmatic compared to a year ago – a good sign for retailers as the holiday season approaches.
SPECIAL FEATURE
What might be another good sign for retailers headed into the winter holiday season is consumers’ spending intentions for the holiday next up on the horizon – Halloween. This year, 72% of consumers plan to celebrate, the highest number recorded since 2012. Among that group, nearly half plans to dress in costume, a record high. So it appears that consumers are in the mood to escape the everyday this year.
And, all that escaping comes with a price tag. The average household plans to spend $86 this year for Halloween, another record high. The largest proportion of budgets will be spent on costumes, followed by candy and decorations, with greeting cards making up a relatively minor share. For more insights on costumes, where people plan to shop, and other interesting trends, visit the National Retail Federation’s Halloween Headquarters at www.NRF.com/Halloween.
October 3, 2017 – The delivery of consumer-centric predictive analytics took center stage on Monday at Oracle World when Prosper Insights & Analytics™ participated with Oracle on a panel, “Changing Consumer Markets from Improbable to Inevitable.” The panel focused on how technology and big data are enabling a new era of sense and respond for brands and retailers.
Sensing shifts in technology and information-driven consumer behavior, retailers and brands are responding with shifts in strategy. By fusing internal data with external first person data, new and unique predictive analytics are empowering retailers and brands to better understand and plan for the future.
“Just about anyone who is working with data sources such as sales or transactional data sooner or later recognize a need for unique consumer data to inform and improve predictive analytics, forecasting algorithms, and fine tune strategy,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “The expectation of the consumer’s intent is not only crucial; it is the only thing that matters.”
Retailers Ulta and Sephora were analyzed and viewed through the eyes of consumers from Prosper’s unique, accurate, and predictive consumer dataset. Prosper was recently cited by CIO Applications as one of the top 25 BI & Analytics companies for 2017. Oracle’s data cloud platform was also featured as a service for fusing the internal transactional data with outside consumer data for improved predictive analytics.
Also discussed were new technologies, such as digital assistants will be the new battleground and are being adopted by consumers. This adoption will soon migrate to the C-Suite where they will provide unique and predictive analytics.
To view an executive accessing complex consumer economic insights from a digital assistant, click here.
Prosper Insights & Analytics™
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns. To learn more: www.ProsperInsights.com
Contact:
Chrissy Wissinger, Director, Communications
chrissy@goProsper.com
Stacie Nelson, Director, Customer Success
stacie@goProsper.com
614-846-0146
The latest from Prosper on Forbes.com on 9/28/2017…
The September consumer confidence reading is down for the third month in a row, but consumer mood is up. How will it impact spending? Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, FGRT, weighs in on consumer confidence, spending forecast, and Prosper’s Impulsivity Score.
- Prosper Consumer Confidence: In September, economic sentiment confidence slides for the third month in a row. This month, 52% of consumers are confident or very confident in the economy, down a point from last month, but continuing to represent a more than 10% increase year over year. The current reading is tracking just ahead of the 13 month average of 51.2%. At 63.6%, confidence among small business owners is down from last month (64.1%).
“A deeper dive into Prosper’s consumer confidence readings reveals 60.4% of $75K+ income households are confident or very confident in the economy, 840 basis points higher than the confidence levels of adults 18+ older. FGRT also looked at confidence by age cohort; Millennials (18-34), GenX, and Baby Boomers. GenX has the greatest confidence at 53.2% and Baby Boomers exhibited the largest year-over-year increase in confidence, up 27% at 51.3%, but still below the 52% reading for the adults generally. At 51.7%, confidence among Millennials dropped 2.6% from year ago levels,” Weinswig commented.
Click here to read full analysis.
