Good times will continue rolling over the next six months for Americans according to the earliest and final results of the largest in scope and participation consumer survey released today by Prosper Insights & Analytics™ and e−forecasting.com.
The popular consumer confidence measure, expressed in growth rates and indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, remained unchanged in March at previous month reading of 111.5, after rising (+0.1 percent points) in February.
The underlying trend in consumer confidence, which smoothes out high frequency noise and thus minimizes the probability of false monthly signals, rose 0.2 percent points to 111.8 in March, a fifteen-year high. “The level of and change in the trend of economic confidence expected by consumers foreshadow that the United States’ growth business-cycle will be in its expansion phase six months from now.” said Maria Sogard, CEO at e-forecasting.com.
Adjusting the new confidence index to the economy’s long-term trend, its co-movement with monthly GDP results in predictive intelligence for classic business cycle analysis, which is used officially to define the booms (expansions) and busts (recessions) for the economy. The GDP trend-adjusted consumer confidence index increased 2.1% in March to a reading of 117.5, following an increase of (+2.7%) in February.
Using the trend-adjusted consumer confidence and sophisticated econometric techniques that measure recession risk, the predictive analytics model puts forward probabilities of an imminent recession with a 50% threshold between booms and busts. “The probability for an upcoming recession declined to 31% in March from 31.3% in February.” said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and editor for Predictive Analytics Databases at e-forecasting.com. “As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 69%.” Evangelos added.
Looking at consumers’ buying intentions (CBI) six months ahead, this month’s visualization of consumer analytics highlights consumer plans to buy cars and electronics. “In March, the CBI predictive analytic for purchasing cars is 1.8% higher than in March of last year,” said Gary Drenik, CEO, Prosper Insights & Analytics. “The trend in future purchases of electronics jumped in March by an annual rate of 15% from February, which was the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the last twelve months,” Gary added.
e−forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 15 years experience forecasting markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
About Prosper Insights & AnalyticsTM
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns. ProsperInsights.com
Grant Faustino, Director, Media Relations
Prosper Insights & AnalyticsTM
Phil Rist, EVP Strategic Insights