Worthington, OH – 6/27/2017 – Prosper Insights & Analytics and e-forecasting.com have joined forces to create the New Consumer Confidence Indices (NCI).  The NCI is an anticipatory macro-economic indicator and forward-looking predictive analytic that uses Prosper’s datasets on sentiment/mood to uncover unique inflection points in business cycles.  The NCI set contains four confidence indices that add useful, clearly understood, and effective instruments to the toolbox of forecasters, public policy analysts, and business planners who monitor the future path of the national economy.  These indices include:

1. A Growth Cycle predictive analytic which has a nine-month lead time at both peaks and troughs of the business cycle. In addition, it identifies and distinguishes slowdowns from recessions and recoveries from expansion phases.

2. A Classic Cycle analytic which looks at consumer behavior in a dynamic way by looking at patterns of both positive and negative in consumers’ mood and sentiment balanced against the economy’s long-term GDP trend average.

3. A Future Recession Probability predictive analytic which measures the gap between current and expected growth in GDP measured by consumers’ optimism to create a new recession risk analysis leading indicator.

4. An Optimism predictive analytic which computes the probability of business cycle fluctuation based on consumers’ expectations over the next six months relative to their economic well-being and optimism for the near future.

“The New Confidence Indices are tools to help forecast the near future, uniquely focusing on the turning points, which are the most difficult to predict concepts in business cycle analysis,” explains Dr. Evangelos Simos Ph.D. and Chief Economist. “It is based on Prosper’s Consumer Confidence question from the Monthly Consumer Survey of Adults 18+ in the U.S. and is ‘data we don’t have’ made predictive by ‘data we have’.”

About New Consumer Confidence Indices (NCI)
The NCI was developed by Dr. Evangelos Otto Simos, Ph.D. and Chief Economist of e-forecasting.com, using the Monthly Consumer Survey which has been collected by Prosper Insights & Analytics since 2002. It was constructed by using higher order, predictive analytics modeling compared to “first-order” methods of the traditional consumer sentiment or confidence indices of the University of Michigan and the Conference Board respectively. It was drawn from an optimization dynamic process designed to meet a well-defined objective.

About e-forecasting.com                                                                                           
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e-forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its’ clients competitive advantage.

Prosper Insights & Analytics™
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in “consumer intent” data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on US and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of affiliate, mobile, email, print, and social-media demand generation campaigns. To learn more: www.ProsperInsights.com

Chrissy Wissinger, Director, Communications
Stacie Nelson, Client Services & Marketing Director

New Consumer Confidence Indices (NCI) Provide Earlier and Unique Predictions of Business Cycles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *